A decade following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and caused chaos, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in universities but very few politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. Both writes two pieces that strive for impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass national emblems, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the notion that there may exist valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified points, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has possesses valuable insights to learn from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
